Live betting system, new matches revealed…
I was searching for the matches for my live betting system experiment and found 3 matches with which I will proceed, 2 from England and 1 perhaps from Germany. At the same time I will take Overs in those matches in my betting blog. Here are those matches and the reasoning why.
Wolfsburg – Bayern
This should be a match with tight start, but still at least 3 goals in it. We all know what is like Bayern game recently and Wolfsburg can always score a goal, especially after their new coach arrival and last weekend disappointment.
Manchester utd – Portsmouth
Here I have a hope that Portsmouth will be able to hold off MU untill at least 20th minute. Big task, but if they will build all their game on defense, then they will able to succeed in it. Smaller stakes here perhaps
Arsenal – Chelsea
Arsenal is a team which I was analyzing during this season closely and I will pick their match once again.
So follow my posts at Twitter and my post-match analysis here. Links to that available at the top of the page.
Good luck to all of us!
Livebetting today: Cancelled due to bad GPRS connection… I beg my pardon for that…
Had to cancel today’s live betting…
Hey Zenitushka!
At first thanks for the very interesting blogs at here as well as on Blogabet. You are doing excellent work and I really like your thoughts! Especially I have found your newest live betting/trading system pretty interesting. Thanks to you, I have tried this kind of system as well now few times. I have confident, that this may be a good way to make some profit in long term, but anyway, there is lots of situations what makes troubles, so I’d like to hear more of your thoughts.
I was sorry to hear about your latest connection problems, because today’s game Wolfsburg – Bayern would have been an excellent example of difficult spots. So would you open a bit your “gameplan” here when there comes a really early goal. I’m assuming, that without your connection problems you would have laid over 2.5 goals before the game. Odds on that were around 1.54 if I remember correct. And when the game started it turned to be a real nightmare, cause Bayern scored on second minute and therefore pretty much ruining the “normal” plan. What would have you done here? I guess there is couple options and one of those was to lay o2.5 even more and hope that there won’t come another goal example in next 20 minutes as then we could back again o2.5 with better odds.
This was what I did today. Laying over 2.5 on odds ~1.10 (or backing u2.5 on odds 9-10) sounded good as on that point I didn’t need to risk much more of money, but would have got later a chance to make some profit anyway if there doesn’t come another goal soon.
The problem is anyway, that I wouldn’t like to be in position where I just have to “hope” something to happen for save my money or even make a profit and risking even more money in difficult spot doesn’t sound too smart either, but maybe even like a gambling without proper positive expected value. So hearing of your thinking process in this kind of situations would be appreciated.
There is some other interesting concepts as well, which I’d like to hear more, but start from this “problem” if you have a time…
Best regards
- Jay
ps. sorry for my English, I hope you find the point anyway…
I’ve got your point, Jay!
I also hate to be into open position, which can be destroyed by 1 goal. I will answer you briefly with 2 thoughts that came into my mind (dont have strength to analyze deeper). To skip such a situation you can chose instead of laying 2,5 goals at score 0:2, to lay over3,5 goals. It will make you feel comfortable and thats would have given you some profit of this match. I’ve tried to make such a move today, in the Chelsea-Arsenal match – I’ve layed over3,5 goals after 1:0 (posted it on Twitter) and layed over4,5 after 2:0 (haven’t posted it, just made it for a test). In the end I’ve made a profit on both of them.
2nd thought must be a rule for everyone – you always have to decide how much can you risk in one match and build a strategy according to it. And here comes the most important thing to calculate the appropriate proportions of starting bet and overall money to risk.
By the way, when I was testing this system in December, I had 11 successive matches where I’ve maid profit and I was really disappointed, cause I wanted to test the system in the conditions where its all goes wrong. Unfortunately such matches started coming in January, when I started doing that with real money. Such a classic!
I will post my results of this weekend match tomorrow. Unfortunately GPRS killed my chances to do so on 3 matches, it was really slow. I would have probably lost some on Bayern match and would surely made some good money on Manchester united game. We are still learning, I hope for good!