Wimbledon picks: Roger Federer – Thomas Berdych and more

Well today I feel my self rather strange, I am so got used to football every day, that 2 days without football action seems like I am missing something. Can’t imagine myself life after 11th of July, when the final will be played. We will surely miss this football summer fest called World Cup.

Now when we have 2 football free days I can switch to tennis, with some picks of mine for the men’s quarter finals. I think today we will have 4 matches all played overs. Let’s take a look on them.

R Federer – T Berdych

Pick: Over 37.5 games
Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.775
Bookmaker:   Pinnacle

Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.87
Bookmaker:   Betfair

Berdych won’t give up easy in this match and I actually expected higher line for overs here. French Open appearance in semifinal, where he just lost to Soderling and now he is into 2nd week at Wimbledon…

Betfair trading: 2 successful results from yesterday

2 matches and both of them appeared to be successful in terms of trading @ Betfair. Both of them had similar patterns in the beginning, but completely different after the 1st goal was scored. Netherlands was a lucky overs result with 3rd goal scored with final touch. Brazil game made 2 quick goals, proving that one of my new rules appears to be the right one.

Basic rules for my yesterday’s trades were as follows. Pre-match bet – LAY of over2,5 goals. 15-20 min BACK of over2,5 goals. Then if the goal is scored in 1st half, then wait for 10 minutes and then LAY the bet. The reason for implementing such rule is simple – odds don’t rise that fast in first 10 minutes, especially when it is an early goal like in Netherlands game. But at the same time your trading can be destroyed by a 2 back-2-back goals, like in Brazil’s match case. I will develop this rules with time, but for the time of being it worked.

Here are the my moves in the Brazil – Chile match.

My tennis picks for today

Wimbledon is into 2nd week and so far I didn’t dedicate much time to tennis here. Today I will post my picks here, with some brief thoughts on them.

Djokovic – Hewitt

Pick: Hewitt win and Over 42,5 games

Odds: 2.03 and 1.98 Bookmaker: Pinnacle

This will be a fight surely. Hewitt enjoys a great form on grass and Djokovic is massively overpriced player overall. Here odds are fair and I will pick the one in form. Overs also look nice as there is a big chance of seeing some tie-breaks here and 4 or 5 sets.

World Cup. Day 18. Brazil and Netherlands hot favorites to progress

Sorry for keeping quite for a weekend, had a football tournament to play, so I didn’t have a time to post my thoughts. Unfortunately whenever you don’t post your thoughts, all the picks come through. Uruguay win in regular time, Ghana (0) in regular time, Germany (0) in regular time + to progress and finally Argentina (-1) – almost all of those bets came through, only Ghana was pushed result as it finished 1:1 in regular time.

Today we have both Brazil and Netherlands as hot favorites in their pairs and both of them should come through into quarterfinals. Their opponents are both with some problems. Chile will have to deal without 3 first choice players (Gary Medel, nicknamed “Pitbull”, Waldo Ponce and Marco Estrada) who are suspended and Slovakia spend a lot of emotions in their final game against Italy. Both of the favorites had little trouble coming out of the group and last games played relaxed, saving some energy for the 1/8 finals. Dutch team has another massive boost in the face of Roben, who will be starting the game. While Brazil welcomes back Kaka, who comes after suspension. All the facts lead us to taking both team wins for a multiple or 2 single bets on asian handicap (-1).

World Cup. Day 14. When we will see real Dutch team?

Despite 2 wins out of 2, I can’t quite say that Holland have shown even 50% of their capabilities. They have great potential and I think that today we have a chance to see them in real action. I would tip Holland to go deep in the tournament, but they have 1 potential problem, in the quarterfinals they will most probably face Brazil team and that’s always a hard match for them. Italy will try to make sure they qualify, most probably from 2nd place. Paraguay will make sure today they will finish in 1st place, to book a meeting with Denmark or Japan in 1/8 final. Denmark – Japan always a risky match, there is so much at stake there.

I will post today only my picks for todays matches, those I’ve picked @ blogabet also.  Won’t have any time to make odd comparison, but believe me, I still can say that one of bookmakers will have them the best of all. Don’t even have to name it!

Cameroon – Holland

Pick:  Over 2.5
Stake:  8/10   Odds:  2.09
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle

World Cup. Day 13. Will England meet France in the airport?

Crucial day today for 2 pre-tournament favorites, Germany and England. Both are in the must win situation and both will play group leaders. I am not worrying about Germany, cause they played nicely in both of the matches, despite 2nd match loss to Serbia. But England showed absolutely nothing here in South Africa and if Slovenia will be able to build up on the performance against USA, then England can pack their bags and meet France in the airport on the way back to London. I doubt that this will happen and England will squeeze through, but still that was unthinkable situation before the World Cup began. 2 more interesting games, USA – Algeria and Serbia – Australia, with all the teams withing a chance to qualify.

Moreover I will offer a free bet on the 3 matches, including today’s Germany and England wins. 10 Euro Free bet @ Pinnacle for a Germany, England and Spain wins in their last games in the group.

Germany, England and Spain to win their last matches

It was long time I was planning to do that and here we come. I offer a Free bet on last round double bet that looks a dead certain one. 3 teams that are considered as favorites of the group pre-tournament, but facing a must-win situation right now. That’s of course Germany, England and Spain! Odds for the triple bet is 3.057.

Terms of Free bet:

1. Register account @ Pinnacle, clicking here
2. Make a minimum deposit (20 euro)
3. Place a bet on Germany, England and Spain triple (up to 10 euro); Odds 3.057
4. If the bet is lost, I will refund it on 30th of June through either PayPal or Pinnacle refund

It’s as easy as 1-2-3! I am 99% sure that this multiple will come through, but Free bet offer is a kind of insurance in case if Ghana will put a massive fight or England will play the same as against Algeria, or Chile will put big resistance against Spain (they surely can, as Chile is considered as good quality side, they were 2nd best in South America qualifiers behind Brazil) . Everything can happen in football.

I will mention that this offer is free of any rollover conditions, so if you wish, you can cash-out immediately after this 2 matches results. It depends on you, its only yours decision.

Betting on Sports must be fun!

Robert Green mistake

World Cup. Day 11. Will Spain answer their critics in match against Honduras?

This was one of the most shocking World Cups as far as I can remember. Low scoring matches, most of the teams don’t intend to attack, playing it safe, therefore shocking results, with England and Italy playing draw with some minor teams. European Champions Spain faced other problem in first game against Switzerland, they played nicely, but simply couldn’t break 10 men defense. In fact I think that 7 Suisse players didn’t cross the midfield in that match, sitting back in defense. I understand, that if they would go out and play open football, then they would get similar result like South Korea got from Argentina. But still, I like when both team are wishing to play football, not when one team only creates and the other only destroys. That day destroyers proved to be  stronger then creators. Today I doubt that this will repeat.

So today I have chosen many options from which to chose on whom to bet. I will return to my analysis with Best Value bets (BVB), Most risky bet, Most safe bet and I will add Poor value bet. Here are all bets I have chosen from today’s 3 games.

World Cup. Day 10. Brazil to face challenge from Ivory Coast

Taking vacation during World Cup is a must do thing. Unfortunately I couldn’t do that so I missed all the matches yesterday, including entertaining late night game Cameroon – Denmark. It proved to be an attacking affair between this 2 teams, something what we miss so much at this World Cup.  Today we will have a big match between 2 great teams. Brazil are always joy to watch, while we can say the same about Ivory Coast team. This should also be an entertaining match, cause Brazil isn’t pragmatic team and refuse to believe that they will play the way Netherlands played in 1st half. Ivory Coast is also capable of showing good attacking football. Even if this match will finish 0:0, I guess it won’t be boring. The 0:0 draw against Portugal wasn’t anything but boring. In other fixtures Paraguay will try to build on the performance they showed against reigning World Champion.