World Cup. Day 11. Will Spain answer their critics in match against Honduras?

This was one of the most shocking World Cups as far as I can remember. Low scoring matches, most of the teams don’t intend to attack, playing it safe, therefore shocking results, with England and Italy playing draw with some minor teams. European Champions Spain faced other problem in first game against Switzerland, they played nicely, but simply couldn’t break 10 men defense. In fact I think that 7 Suisse players didn’t cross the midfield in that match, sitting back in defense. I understand, that if they would go out and play open football, then they would get similar result like South Korea got from Argentina. But still, I like when both team are wishing to play football, not when one team only creates and the other only destroys. That day destroyers proved to be  stronger then creators. Today I doubt that this will repeat.

So today I have chosen many options from which to chose on whom to bet. I will return to my analysis with Best Value bets (BVB), Most risky bet, Most safe bet and I will add Poor value bet. Here are all bets I have chosen from today’s 3 games.

	Bwin	Bet365	Optibet	Pinnacle
Portugal to win	1.37	1.40	1.40	1.400
Portugal – N.Korea, Under 2,5 goals	1.70	1.66	1.66	1.735
Chile to win	2.25	2.25	2.28	2.290
Chile – Switzerland, Under 2,5 goals	1.45	1.475	1.54	1.578
Spain to win	1.10	1.12	1.10	1.143
Spain (-1,5 goals)	1.40	1.55	—–	1.595
Spain (-2 goals)	—–	2.025	1.97	2.020
Spain – Honduras, Over2,5 goals	1.60	1.625	1.68	1.758

That’s what I call great bookmaker! Only one bet from Pinnacle out of 8, has lower odds. All the rest are way higher. If you are really wishing to do Best Value Betting, then here is a tip where you should have all of your bets.

Most Valuable Bet.

Spain – Honduras

Pick:  Spain (-2)
Stake:  5/10   Odds:  2.020
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle

After disappointment in the match against Switzerland, Spain will start attacking from the first minutes. Spain didn’t even draw this match, so this is different from what we have yesterday, when Italy played New Zealand.  Spain are in an absolutely must win situation, especially after Chile most probably will win Switzerland. In the first game Spain did a mistake, starting with 2 defensive minded midfielders Busquets and Xabi Alonso. In the match where Spain are expected to attack all the time and break tight defense, this decision was a bit strange to say the least. Coach Del Bosque has enough experience to take a not of that and make the corrections in starting line-up. I think today he will start either with 2 forwards, Villa and Torres.

Most Risky Bet.

Portugal – North Korea

Pick:  Portugal to win
Stake:  No Bet   Odds:  1.40
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle

This bet looks very risky for me and I was choosing, under which type of bet to place it – either the most risky bet or Poor Value Bet. I think this match suits for both of them. Portugal showed nothing in the match against Ivory Coast. Except of Ronaldo hitting the post, I didn’t see nothing special from them, only some individual skills. North Korea is a very special team, coming from completely different world. For them World Cup is something really big not on words and in interviews, but that’s their feelings inside. For Koreans this will be just like World Cup final, so they won’t surrender this game with ease. I think that Portugal can struggle against Koreans and most probably will be higher priced during the game. Portugal of course can win this in the end, but I will never put a penny on 1.40 odds against North Korea. Perhaps North Korea (+1,5) is good value to bet with odds 1.714 @ Pinnacle.

Most Safe Bet.

Chile – Switzerland

Pick:  Chile (0)
Stake:  5/10   Odds:  1.595
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle

Reasons for such bet are simple for me, I rate Chile very high at this World Cup and before it started I was sure that they can provide a surprise for us. Experienced coach, talented young players, good build up in attack – that’s all Chile. And that’s surely wasn’t luck that they finished 2nd in qualifying for the World Cup. Switzerland has also a very experienced coach, Ottmar Hitzfield. He knows everything about football and he showed what a good tactician he is in the match against Spain. But today they will face another team and despite tight defensive lines, I believe Switzerland won’t have such luck that they had in match against Spain.  Bet no draw looks a very safe bet in this match, I put a real doubt on Switzerland winning chances in this game. However they can snatch a draw here, so a clear Chile win is a bit dangerous.