Zenitushka Sports Betting tips

WTA Istanbul. Final event. Day 2: Sharapova and Azarenka to win today

vikols — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 10:46:56 +0000

So the tennis year is coming to an end and we have only 2 events left. This one in Istanbul, WTA Championships final event and men’s event in London in late November. First day gave us little surprises, as Kvitova and Wozniacki won, and Sharapova in her first match after injury lacked some competitive practice to win it. But overall Sharapova looked fine, ankle didn’t bother her and she looked determined as ever in her game plan. I truly expect her to win today against Na Li, but even after that win she will struggle to qualify for Semifinals.

First of all let me share with all of you a very useful preview of the tournament by Chris Chase. His thoughts are really close to mine, the only difference is that he can express them way better. So here is the link to that: http://sports.yahoo.com/tennis/blog/busted_racquet/post/Busted-Racquet-previews-the-2011-WTA-Championshi?urn=ten-wp3645

DAY 2 preview by Zenitushka.

Strangely, but I am looking to back all the favorites today for different reasons. Stosur I think still has problems with tall and top players, who Azarenka surely is. Sharapova looked fine in her ground game vs. Stosur and she should win Na Li. The Chinese of course will be in much better form then in previous tournaments, but I think it still won’t be enough. Wozniacki and Zvonareva are in polar modes – Caro’s confedence must be high after defeating the woman in form Radwanska and Vera’s confedence is low after losses to Cibulkova in Moscow final and yesterday’s smash defeat against Kvitova. So here are my picks for today.

M Sharapova – N Li Pick: M Sharapova ML Result: PENDING

Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.50
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: Yes
zenitushka.blogabet.com

Sharapova looked fine yesterday and only lack of practice was at fault of losing to Stosur. Her ankle looks ok and her ground game is in good shape. It is clear that she was preparing hard for this tournament and is determined to go out of the group (although now its a tough task).

Na Li confedence is on the low since French Open. She won only 5 matches since then and was really awful in her defeats. In the face of determined Sharapova, who had some feel of the ball yesterday, I think she will fail and lose it.

Azarenka – S StosurPick: Azarenka ML Result: PENDING

Stake: 10 Odds: 1.44
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: No
zenitushka.blogabet.com

Stossur still has problems with top and tall players and despite winning yesterday against Sharapova, that match only proved that tendence. If Sharapova would have some competitive practice beofore this tourney, I am sure she would have turned that match around and won it.

Unlike Sharapova, Azarenka comes after convincing win in Luxembourg, giving away only 22 games in 5 matches (averaging 4,4 per match). So she is fresh and in great shape. Moreover, Victoria has 4-0 advantage vs. Stosur and no set loss to the Auzzie. Max stakes on Aza.

Other tips for today.

Wozniacki should win today against Zvonareva, but I won’t be picking this match untill I see the picture. And there is one pick from ATP tournament in Vienna, where I expect Davydenko to win against Darcis.

Sunday picks: Philadelphia Eagles to win against Redskins and overs bets.

vikols — Sun, 16 Oct 2011 10:35:48 +0000

Just a quick look at Sunday sports events, sharing my thoughts. One game is the match I have been waiting from last sunday, when Eagles lost to Bills 31-24. Eagles are a dream team and they just have to start getting some results. All they need is to stop making mistakes. 2 other bets are overs from Spanish Segunda and Norway Adeccoligaen. Barcelona B plays attacking football, careless at the back. Guadalajara is just an attacking team. For me that’s a perfect formula for overs. Value is also still there. Norway’s Randaberg is also an overish team, so they also have a great chance to make another game with more then 3 or 4 goals.

Washington Redskins – Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: Philadelphia (-3) Result: Pending

Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.95

Bookmaker: PINNACLE

Philadelphia was considered as one of the favorites for the 2011 season, but series of bad results found them way low in the table, with 1-4 record. I watched last game of Eagles vs. Bills and I must say that it was all about interceptions. Career high 4 interceptions from Michael Vick destroyed overall great stats: 315 passing yards, 90 rushing yards (something you don’t expect from quarter back), 2 TouchDowns. The most painful interception happened in the end, when Eagles were -7 points and driving steadily towards the end zone. Avant made some great catches through out the game, but everybody will remember his last play, where he was robbed off the ball and Eagles lost a chance to win the game, that would have been a great come back from 28-7 .

Pick Eagles here. They will be roaring to get that win today.

Barcelona B – Guadalajara

Pick: Over 2.75 Result: PENDING
Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.88
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: Yes
zenitushka.blogabet.com

Barcelona B plays attacking football, allowing opponents to score as well. That’s I think something that is inside all of Barcelona teams, great attacking skills coupled with some sloppy defending. Expect overs here as well.

Randaberg – HamKam
Pick: Over 3.5 Result: PENDING
Stake: 5 Odds: 1.91
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: Yes
zenitushka.blogabet.com

Randaberg just keep on stamping over 3.5 goals matches, expect the same here. 17 over3,5 goals matches in 27 games. Ham-Kam are 9-18, but on the road they are 5-8 making it more tasty in terms of chance and odds.

KHL 12/10/2011 preview: Dinamo Riga to revenge against Lev Poprad and some more.

vikols — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 08:54:12 +0000

Well, after some row of good Dinamo Riga games and bad results, finally Dinamo recorded hard fought win 7:1 against Vityaz Chekhov. Don’t be fooled by the score, it was much closer then it is. After 1st period, despite Dinamo dominance in terms of shots, it still was 0:0. And even after 2nd period, when score was 3:1, Vityaz could have taken it in overtime. But they once again showed in what are they trully good. It is well known that Vityaz is known for it’s tough guys and famous fights against other teams (e.g. famous fight against Avangard team). 3rd period main stats that determined result – Vityaz 96 penalty minutes, including 2 minutes playing 5 on 3 and 9 minutes playing with a player less. Dinamo had an easy task in this case, to keep on playing hockey and score goals. Which they did. Not a massive result for Dinamo, but a win is a win. So, let’s get back to preview and match highlights…

Vityaz fighting against Dinamo Riga players. Highlights.

Wednesday KHL league matches.

I have several thoughts about today’s matches. Main bet will remain the same for me, Dinamo Riga still looks a value bet and I will explain it below. As long as they will keep on playing as they did, they should start getting constant results. Since 3 players are disqualified in Vityaz squad, I find Severstal also a valuable pick today. But let’s start with Dinamo Riga.

Dinamo Riga – LevPick: Dinamo Riga 1X2 Result: PENDING

Stake: 5 Odds: 1.85
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: Yes
zenitushka.blogabet.com

NOT

I place this bet NOT because of Dinamo Riga won 7:1 in last match. They did what they had to do against weak opponent, who likes fighting more then playing hockey. Vityaz destroyed their chances with their own hands… I should say fists!

I place this bet NOT because I come from Riga and chearing for Dinamo Riga. In fact I am not. I’m just in situation when I have a chance to watch every Dinamo game, be close with a team and hear what local experts talk about atmosphere in the team, tactics, etc.

Do pick

I do pick Dinamo Riga because they played good hockey in all 4 away matches and got only 4 points from it. They are hungry for victories.

I do pick Dinamo cause last time they played Lev on 26 of September, they lost 2:0 and after that had bad streak of results. Dinamo want a revenge.

I do pick Dinamo cause Riga is a hockey city, with a lot fans chearing for Dinamo Riga. They will chear heavily for Dinamo getting so important result for play-off. With recent bad results, the race for play-off for Dinamo Riga has already started. They have big gap to catch up.

Some other thoughts on today matches.

I will keep it brief – Severstal win over Vityaz and -1, Sibir win over Spartak Moscow, Ak Bars overs vs. Tractor.

KHL Hockey league: Dinamo Riga presents a value against Spartak Moscow

vikols — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 21:48:33 +0000

Last my bet, where I tipped SKA easy win over Dinamo Riga was a completely correct pre-match and completely wrong in-play. Dinamo Riga found it’s game exactly in that game against one of the leaders (perhaps this rule must be remembered). The way Dinamo Riga played, they will surely bring some wins from this away series. They were quick, they defended well enough and they were shooting at every opportunity. With such game they have a great chances against Spartak Moscow. Odds also look tasty enough, to give them a try. Betfair offers 3.05 on Dinamo Riga and 2.40 on Money Line (incl. OT).

Looking at Head-2-head we can also pick up some arguments in favor of taking away side. 7 wins for Dinamo Riga and 3 wins for Spartak Moscow.

Spartak – Dinamo Riga preview

Pick: Dinamo Riga 1X2 Result: PENDING
Stake: 5/10 Odds: 3.00
Bookmaker: Pinnacle Sports vCash: Yes
zenitushka.blogabet.com

SKA St.Petersburg – Dinamo Riga 2:1 (OT) Highlights.

Dinamo Moscow – Spartak Moscow 1:4 (0:1; 0:2; 1:1) Highlights.

KHL hockey league: SKA St.Petersburg should win comfortably against Dinamo Riga

vikols — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 11:14:26 +0000

Today I will take a look at both matches in KHL hockey league and both bets will be on home teams. SKA will welcome Dinamo Riga today in the a very contrasting contest, with SKA having a great start to the season and Dinamo Riga still searching for it’s new game under new coach.

SKA St Petersburg – Dinamo Riga
Pick: SKA St Petersburg (-1.5) Result: PENDING
Stake: 6 Odds: 1.81
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: Yes
zenitushka.blogabet.com

I will once again will divide pick on this match into 2 parts, overs and handicap win. SKA under Miloš Říha are playing much more solid hockey and after so many years they now represent a serious threat for other Gagarin Cup contenders.

I have little doubts that SKA will win today, the only questions for me is by how much and how many goals will Dinamo Riga be able to score. There are many reasons for not believing in Dinamo Riga. Their recent games were rather weak and they showed that players still can’t understand what the new coach wants from them. Important missings is also a major factor, with Girts Meija, Girts Ankipans and Arvils Rekis all stayed at home. They are not the ones who make the game for Dinamo Riga, but still, Dinamo doesn’t have a very long bench with reserve players to cover those missings.

Dinamo Moscow – Spartak
Pick: Dinamo Moscow 1X2 Result: PENDING
Stake: 5 Odds: 1.85

Bookmaker: William Hill vCash: Yes
zenitushka.blogabet.com

Dinamo Moscow found it’s rhythm in recent games and only blunder against Lev spoiled the whole picture. That was the last game of Dinamo away tour and today they are returning home. Dinamo are still 1st in Western conference and today they will try show that game against Lev was just a fluke.

Spartak season is weak so far and from those matches that I’ve seen, I think they will stay low in the table and will struggle to get into play-offs.

KHL league preview: Torpedo Novgorod – Yugra. Expect few goals here

vikols — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 14:22:36 +0000

Well, it’s time to get back with some more KHL hockey topics on my blog. I used to have a lot of sport picks from KHL, interesting facts and videos and I guess I will return doing that in the future. Today I will keep it short, as I only want to share some thoughts on 2 matches.

Torpedo – Yugra
Pick: Under 5 Result: PENDING
Stake: 5 Odds: 1.98
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: Yes
zenitushka.blogabet.com

I have seen several matches of Yugra this season and I must admit they still not 100% into season. I have seen full match against Spartak Moscow, where they lost 2:1. They lack sparkle in attack and all their goals come after hard work. 7 matches into season and only 11 goals scored. The only chance to get result in the game against leader of Western Conference is to keep the same strategy and try to avoid goals for Torpedo side.

I have chosen under 5 goals bet @ Blogabet, but in real life betting I don’t like it. I will better take smaller odds, but it will be either under 6 goals and won, then 5 goals and push. Especially when Betfair gives 1.76 on under 5,5 goals.

Video highlights of Yugra-Spartak Moscow game:

Bundesliga II Eintracht Frankfurt – Union Berlin: Looks good for overs experiment

vikols — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 10:53:57 +0000

European cups are over and we are back to domestic leagues. For today’s betting system experiment, I will choose Eintracht Frankfurt – Union Berlin game. Eintracht looks in good form, especially in attack and Union’s defence doesn’t look like they can hold of Gekas & Co. So there are 2 bets I will choose on Betfair Sports Betting Exchange – over 2,5 goals and over 3,5 goals.

Eintracht Frankfurt – Union Berlin. Betfair betting strategy.

Betting trade market: Over 2,5 and over 3,5 goals.

Pre-match bet:

If odds on over 2,5 goals will drop down to 1.60, then I will start the match with LAY. At current odds I won’t do that, Eintracht to risky, they can easily score a quick goal and I will end up losing.

Strategy inplay:

Over 2,5 goals current odds: 1.64. I will make a bet when the odds will rise by 15 pips, reaching 1.79. Bet amount: 20 euro.

Over 3,5 goals current odds: 2.60. Here odds will be rising quicker, so we can make a move when odds will rise by 30 pips, reaching 2.90. Bet amount: 20 euro.

Risk factor.

I’ve got to mention also a risk factor for today’s pick. If we will compare this match with my previous picks for trade, then we can admit that this market has a low liquidity, meaning that it is much dificult to make a trade on it. You can see from the print screen that 6 hours prior to the start there are not much money in the market.

E. Frankfurt – Union Berlin
Pick: Over 2.5 Result: PENDING
Stake: 5 Odds: 1.60
Bookmaker: William Hill vCash: Yes
From zenitushka.blogabet.com

Eintracht Frankfurt looks dead certain for the promotion to Bundesliga I even after few games into season. They have great squad, especially for Bundesliga II. Gekas alone can make the difference. Great value in over 3,5 goals bet. Minus 1 handicap looks also good, although not that valuable. Half of my 10 points bet goes on over 2,5 goals and the other half on over 3,5 goals bet.

Betfair Sports Betting exchange.

Thanks to technology it pioneered, Betfair has rapidly become the world’s biggest betting community. Bound by a commitment to innovation and value, in just ten years Betfair has revolutionised the betting industry. The Betfair exchange processes more then seven million transactions a day – that’s more than all European Stock Exchanges combined. For the new customers they offer 20 pounds free bet and up to 1000 pounds in cash back. Here you can find some information to get started with Betfair. It’s available in 18 languages, so I guess you will find the most appropriate to you. If you have any more questions or need to precise something, then you can contact me directly.

Europa league. Day 2. Experiment with Metalist Kharkov – AZ Alkmaar match

vikols — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 09:49:19 +0000

Not much thoughts on today’s Europa league matches. But there is one where I can go on with testing my syste, betting on overs slightly into the match. In outright I have posted my prediction that this match will have more then 2 goals in it, despite he fact that odds on overs are rising, perhaps due to expectations that Metalist will play very careful. But let’s go back to Betfair betting strategy that I will try for this match.

Metalist Kharkov – Az Alkmaar. Betfair betting strategy.

Pre-match bet:

I decided to take this experiment furthe, laying overs for 40 euro @ 2.06. That was yesterday and since then odds dropped on overs to 1.96, so I actually lost 10 pips value.

Strategy inplay:

I will put automatic BACK at price that is 20-25 pips higher then starting price. Moreover I will divide this BACK in 2 parts – the biggest one, 35 euro, I will put at price 2.22 and the rest 20 euro I will put at price 2.42.

Time	BACK	LAY	Over 2,5	Under 2,5
Pre-match		40 euro @ 2.06	- 42.39 euro	+ 37.99 euro
10-15 minutes*	35 euro @ 2.22		+ 0.29 euro	+ 4.75 euro
20-25 minutes*	20 euro @ 2.42		+ 27.27 euro	- 15.25 euro

* – that’s my prediction, can change according to scrypt of the match.

Metalist – Alkmaar
Today, 20:00 (CET)
Football – Europa League

Pick: Over 2.5 Result: Pending
Stake: 5/10 Odds: 2.02 Verified odd Bookmaker: Bet365 Betfair odds: 2.06 vCash: Yes

Both teams showed their class in 1st round with Metallist winning 2:1 away at Austria Viena and AZ Alkmaar winnin 4:1 at home against Malmo. There will be an attacking football in this encounter and I think both teams will score tomorrow. AZ are strong this season, winning match after match, making last 5 matches with over 2,5 goals and 2 of them over 3,5 goals. Overall I think there’s a great value in over 2,5 goals. Well worth a risk.

Champions league Day 2 : Easy winning bets for Real, Inter, Zenit and unlucky Bayern overs

vikols — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 22:52:37 +0000

I will start my review of the day 2 with Wednesday match Zenit St.Petersburg vs. Porto bet, as I had a slight experiment in it. So pre-match tip for that match was overs, which I posted on my blogabet blog and it came easily with Zenit winning 3:1 (Shirokov 20′, 63′; Danny 72′ – Rodriguez 10′). But I would like to stop on adding value to this bet, which I mentioned in the last paragraph. That’s strategy is a bit similar to the one I used to post here some time ago and I will try to spend more time on betting system experiments.

Betfair strategy for the Zenit – Porto game.

Pre-match odds:

Odds on overs just minutes before the kick-off were 2.12.

Tactics:

Take either odds live 2.25-2.30 or bet on overs after 10 minutes played.

First minutes scrypt:

Target odds came as early as 5′ minute, making the task really easy. In fact odds have risen up to 2.42 (see on the image) before that early goal from Porto. 5 minute wait earned, for those who followed it on Betfair, 18 pips or +8,5% (taking 2.30 odds inplay).

Thoughts after:

As you see from the print screen, I haven’t used that strategy myself due to busy working schedule, so just placed an overs bet pre-match. Although with Betfair i could have put an automatic buying order and it would have been matched at 2.30. At some point I joined the match, but only made some silly moves which reduced my profit. But who cares about my personal stuff… The most important – I think this strategy looks fine betting on overs. Of course I wouldn’t use such strategy in the Barcelona matches, cause they can be 2 or even 3 nil on 10th minute. But the same strategy could have been used in my other Champions league tip, Bayern Munich vs. Manchester City Overs. First goal came only on 38′ minute, so we could easily pick up some 20 pips betting on overs, which would allow us to make some better trade after Bayern went 2:0 just before halftime.

Champions league brief review.

CSKA Moscow – Inter Milan 2:3 (1:2)

Pick: Inter (0) or Inter Draw no bet

Comments: Inter did went very easily 2:0 up, so if you had such bet you could easily lay it at low odds. But I must say that CSKA played brilliantly in 2nd half and were unlucky to concede just after they leveled the score. This bet could have easily been lost if not Zarate’s great skills to score 3rd goal for Inter.

Real Madrid – Ajax 3:0 (2:0)

Pick: Real (-2) asian hcp

Comments: Really easy bet. Last year these 2 teams met twice with Real winning 2:0 in Amsterdam and 4:0 in Madrid. No difference this season, with Real only getting stronger.

Bayern Munich – Manchester City 2:0 (2:0)

Pick: Over 2,5 goals

Comments: As I’ve said, this one was an unlucky outcome cause Bayern had a lot of chances in 2nd half, just couldnt’ convert. It was more unlucky cause my believe in Manchester City scoring disappeared in 2nd half, as City game collapsed completely.There was a great trade opportunity, that I mentioned above in this game.

Zenit – Porto 3:1 (1:1)

Pick: Over 2,5 goals

Comments: 2 quick goals and red card from Porto made the game.

Other views pre-match.

Milan – Victoria Plzen 2:0 (0:0)

Pick: Under 2,5 and Plzen (+2)

Comments: Pato is out for 4 weeks and without him Milan aren’t the same. That’s why I will be following them closely during that period, betting against him.

Arsenal – Olympiakos 2:1 (2:1)

Pick: Arsenal win to nil

Comments: Poor bet this one, as Arsenal defence looked vulnerable in the match and they even could have come with only 1 point, Olympiakos striking the post in 2nd half. Although looking back at this match and I must admit that there was a great value in it and it was overs bet with odds over evens. Great prise for Arsenal game.

BATE – Barcelona 0:5 (0:3)

Pick: Under 3,5 goals and (-2)

Comments: Don’t bet on unders in the Barcelona matches this season. They simply enjoy beeing on the pitch, so the goals will be coming. Barcelona to win by 2 goals at least was easy, BATE completely outclassed from 1st minute. 23 shots compare with 5 from BATE and 13 on target comparing it with ZERO from Belorussians. And just looks at some of comments from Eurosport live text (31st and 63rd minutes):

31′ Superb tackle by Puyol to win the ball from Volodko. First time BATE have been in the Barca box.
63′ Aleksiyan throws over a fine cross from the left wing, but Skavysh just fails to connect with the header. Best moment of the night for BATE.

Bayer Leverkusen – Genk 2:0 (0:0)

Pick: Under 2,5 goals

Comment: Didn’t get to PC to put it on my tipping blog before the match. Ridiculous odds on overs before the match. 1,52 on over 2,5 and 2,31 on over3,5 goals were completely clueless.

Marseille – Borussia Dortmund 3:0 (1:0)

Pick: Borussia Dortmund (0)

Comment: Just a thought, wouldn’t put a penny on this tricky match. Both have bad seasons so far, so it’s hard predict which team will come out on the field.

Shakhtar Donetsk – APOEL 1:1 (0:0)

Pick: Over 2,5 goals or Shakhtar win

Comment: That’s a surprise result as I was sure Shakhtar will win today. From overs bet I would traded out on Betfair unscared (2 quick goals in 60s minutes), but 2nd bet would surely been lost.

Valencia – Chelsea 1:1 (0:0)

Pick: Under 2,5 goals and draw

Comment: Unders were certain for me in this game, slightly lucky with late Valencia equaliser from penalty spot (big thanks to Kalou).

Friday tennis preview: Stosur and Radwanska in hot form

vikols — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 11:57:10 +0000

Today there are some interesting fixtures in both WTA Toronto and ATP Montreal tournaments. There has been a lot of surprises yesterday, Kvitova played awfully against Petkovic and lost, Sharapova couldn’t cope with the wind and lost to Voskoboeva, Zvonareva lost for the 2nd time in as many weeks to supreme Radwanska. Today I will take a look on some of the matches.

WTA Toronto: Agnieszka Radwanska – Andrea Petkovic

Radwanska is now in her best ever form, winning tournament in Carslbad and still having no problems here in Toronto. She defeated Zvonareva (runner-up at US Open 10′) now twice in 2 weeks time and she is definetely one of the favorites to win US Open 2011.
Radwanska holds 3-0 record against Petkovic. Moreover Agneszka defeated Petkovic in Carlsbad last week. I will go with the Polish talent.

Betfair preview:

Odds on Radwanska are moving up. Betting volume is average for the pre-match, with biggest bets around 1 500 euro. Overall matched on match: 68,832 euro (58% Radwanska/42% Petkovic).

Pinnacle odds: Radwanska to win 1.862

WTA Toronto: Sam Stosur – Roberta Vinci

Yesterday I beted against Sam, but after her performance against Na Li and the way she adopts to weather conditions, I can’t skip this bet today. Stossur enjoys playing in windy conditions, she admitted that herself. Under such conditions she can add ball spin when serving and making forehand shots. I will go with the fav here.

Betfair preview:

Slight odds drift from 1.5 up to 1.6 prematch. Betting volume is high, around 100K euro matched already. Biggest bet matched is around 5000 euro.

Pinnacle odds: The odds on Stosur also a bit rising. While I was writing this preview odds changed from 1,549 to 1,556.