ATP bets for today: Starace, Benneteau and Dimitrov to win today

Today I will take a look at 3 bets in 3 different tournaments. Julien Benneteau unfortunately already started, so I will focus on the rest matches.

ATP Umag tournament. Potito Starace –  Juan Ignacio Chela. 

This is surely an even match. The reason why Chela is favorite is solely because he made a good run at French Open. After that he haven’t showed anything positive. 2nd round loss to Bogomolov in 3 sets at Wimbledon, 1st round loss to Kamke at Hamburg ATP.  Starace has nothing to be proud of this season, but still he remains a positive clay court specialist. Advantages playing into his racket: he played 1 match here already, defeating Thiemo De Bakker  and Potito won last 2 matches against Chela, including last year win in semi-final. Overall head-2-head is even as we can see.  Starace is my call and overs in games.

Tennis picks for friday: Zahlavova Strycova and Hradecka to progress

Today there are many picks form WTA Prague tournament, in fact in all 4 matches there I have at least one bet. Perhaps only Szavay – Hercog match is bit mystery for me. According to all rules and history, this should be the end of Szavay winning streak. But I haven’t seen Hercog playing, so perhaps I will skip this match in terms of betting.

I will start with first match scheduled for tomorrow in Prague. Anna Tatishvili really impressed me in her first round match against Rybarikova. She is a completely different player to Patty Schnyder, likes striking ball really hard and sharp, good backhand. In fact, looking back at Schnyder recent matches, I can’t quite find a player with a similar style to Tatishvili. Anna fought her way back in the first match against Rybarikova 0:6 7:5 7:5 and then made 2-0 victory over Hrdinova. In Anna advantage I can add that she is still young player (12 years younger then Schnyder), so motivation to win an old school good player will be high for her. I think that Anna surely can provide a challenge against Patty, and at odds around 5.0 she is worth a bet. One more bet here is overs, cause line is set not that high.

Tennis picks for Thursday: Szavay to win Benesova and more

Today several interesting picks from both WTA and ATP tournaments. The biggest bet should be Szavay to beat Benesova: Szavay won a tournament in Hungary recently, played really well for 2 weeks now and Benesova has problems with her serve (very weak indeed). Moreover head-2-head is in Szavay favor, she won in 2008 in Bad Gastein in 2 sets (head-2-head). I think this should be an easy win for Szavay, where she will be able to attack Benesova’s 2nd serve and make a lot of points from that. I think this also will finish with 2 set victory for Szavay.

Pick:  Szavay
Stake:  10/10   Odds:  1.325
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle

Stake:  10/10   Odds:  1.34
Bookmaker:  Betfair

Betfair trading: 1,01 odds gubbed today, Luszak from 1.01 to loser

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Today quite interesting day of tennis. 2 tennis matches with a complete turnarounds and 45,000 euro lost on the odds of 1.10 and lower. So there was one 1,01 gubbed in the match between Pere Riba and Peter Luszak, and in other match also heavy favorite during inplay almost lost the match. For those who doesn’t understand the trader’s slang, phrase “1,01 gubbed” means that one of the players reached 1,01 odds at some point of the match and went on to lose it. Basically those kind of examples prove the rule, if you have any player reaching odds sub 1,10s, then he should be LAYed.  There were too many examples 2 weeks after Wimbledon. But here are today’s one’s.

Pere Riba-Madrid – Peter Luczak 4:6 6:2 7:6 (6)

Pre-match odds on Pinnacle: 1.50 – 2.84

3rd set, score 5:1, Riba serving for the match, odds reached 1,01
3rd set, score 5:2*, Peter Luszak broken back and serves
3rd set, score 5*:3, Peter Luszak hold his serve, Riba to serve
3rd set, score 5*:3, 40-0, 3 match points for Riba, wasted by Spaniard, Luszak breaks back for 5:4*
3rd set, score 5:4*, Riba had several match points, but Luszak made a hold
3rd set, score 6:6, tie break score 4:6 in favor of Luszak, 2 (or 3 overall)  match points for the Australian, Peter is serving

Richard Bloomfield – Cristoph Rochus: biggest arbitrage bet I’ve had

As it usually happens, after the big tournaments, such as Wimbledon, come some strange matches. Bloomfield vs. Rochus was surely amongst such matches. When market appeared on Bettfair , Bloomfield was an underdog with odds 2.10. Prior to the match, odds dropped on Bloomfield as low as 1.35.

It was quite clear that some of the bookies could be to slow to react and didn’t make an adjustment to the odds. And I found it at our local bookmaker on a set betting market. Some 5 hours before the match odds on 2-0 Bloomfield @ Optibet were 3.04, while @ Betfair the lay of the same outcome was available @ 1.55 with some 340 euros available.

Wimbledon picks: Roger Federer – Thomas Berdych and more

Well today I feel my self rather strange, I am so got used to football every day, that 2 days without football action seems like I am missing something. Can’t imagine myself life after 11th of July, when the final will be played. We will surely miss this football summer fest called World Cup.

Now when we have 2 football free days I can switch to tennis, with some picks of mine for the men’s quarter finals. I think today we will have 4 matches all played overs. Let’s take a look on them.

R Federer – T Berdych

Pick: Over 37.5 games
Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.775
Bookmaker:   Pinnacle

Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.87
Bookmaker:   Betfair

Berdych won’t give up easy in this match and I actually expected higher line for overs here. French Open appearance in semifinal, where he just lost to Soderling and now he is into 2nd week at Wimbledon…

My tennis picks for today

Wimbledon is into 2nd week and so far I didn’t dedicate much time to tennis here. Today I will post my picks here, with some brief thoughts on them.

Djokovic – Hewitt

Pick: Hewitt win and Over 42,5 games

Odds: 2.03 and 1.98 Bookmaker: Pinnacle

This will be a fight surely. Hewitt enjoys a great form on grass and Djokovic is massively overpriced player overall. Here odds are fair and I will pick the one in form. Overs also look nice as there is a big chance of seeing some tie-breaks here and 4 or 5 sets.

ATP London. Mardy Fish – Sam Querrey match preview

Couldn’t skip having a thought on this fixture. Saw both of them in action this week and can’t quite say that either of them convinced me about brilliant form. Mardy Fish had hot&cold match against Murray, from playing great against one of the best returners in modern tennis to playing awful like in 2nd set and 3rd set after being a break up. I still am convinced that if there wasn’t a break due to darkness, then Murray would have won it.

M Fish – S Querrey

Pick:  Over 23.5 games
Stake:  5/10   Odds:  1.813
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle

In the match where I can’t pick a winner, Overs looks like a good bet for me. Sam Querey won’t give this match easily, Mardy Fish will probably will start better, but he proved not very consistent during the match and he can drop a set (or even a match) to Big Sam. Similar type of players and I expect some tie breaks here or a 3-setter. Scoreline will be similar to Sam match against Rainer Schuettler, 7:6 5:7 3:6 with final set going in favor of either of them.

ATP Miami. Mardy Fish – Mikhail Youzhny preview

I don’t say that Mardy will surely win this one, but the value is surely there. I respect Mikhail Youzhny a lot and I do like backing him, cause most of the time he is underestimated by both bookmakers and other punters (against whom I bet at Betfair). But… Mardy Fish, as I said previously, is very dangerous when reaching a good form on american hardcourts and matches here lead me the thought that he is in descent form recently (otherwise I doubt he would beat Murray in 2 sets).

Youzhny is very interesting type of player. Usually starts slow, but then tries to stay right there behind and uses any opportunity to get back. Don’t know if its his initial tactics or just his psychology, but quite often his matches are a bit like a trap for his opponents – starts slow and weak, stays there and when opponent relaxes a bit he comes back and wins it. Perhaps thats only my thoughts, but thats the way I see Youzhny.

It should an even match, with slight advantage to Fish. And odds of over evens present a real value for me. Especially considering the fact that I there is a big chance of Mardy taking first set.

Pick: Mardy Fish to win

Odds @ Betfair: 2.14

Odds @ bookmakers: up to 2.10 @ Sportingbet and Bet365

Highest odds taken on Betfair: 2.28

Miami ATP: Mardy Fish vs. Feliciano Lopez preview

My original pick and for some other picks @ Blogabet click here.

Mardy Fish on american hardcourts can be very dangerous. He proved that several times and I will just remind you some of them, the most recent.

Indian Wells 2008, 11th week
Defeated Davydenko, Hewitt, Nalbandian, Federer. Lost in the final against Djokovic 6-2 5-7 6-3

New Haven 2008, 34th week
Defeated Gicquel, Levine, Verdasco. Lost in the final to Marin Cilic 6-4 4-6 6-2

US OPEN 2008, 35th week
Reached quarterfinal beating Smeets, Mathieu, Blake, Monfils. Lost to Nadal in 4 sets.

2009 and early 2010 wasn’t as successfull for the american. He had only 2 decent results early 2009 reaching final in San Jose (defeating Blake, Del Potro, Hewitt, Isner) and win in Delray Beach tournament (beating Korolev in the final). Since then he didn’t show much. Here in Miami though he looks much better and is really a generous pick today at that prise.

Mardy Fish in Miami:

Mardy Fish – Andy Murray 6-4 6-4  5.42 – 1.14
Mardy Fish – Leonardo Mayer 7-6 (4) 6-4  1.80 – 1.90

Feliciano Lopez in Miami:

Feliciano Lopez – Michael Berrer 7:6 (2) 7:5 1.69 – 2.15

Odds movement 3 hours before the match:

Highest taken:  1.83

Actual odds now: 1.67

My bet: Fish to win it, odds 1.75

Highest odds at other bookmakers:  1.68 @ Unibet